July 2, 2019 — SEAFOOD NEWS — As sockeye salmon surge past the Port Moller Test Fishery nets and catch tallies in the Bay rise as escapment numbers in the river systems accelerate even faster (after all, that is what the biologists manage for), the vast size of Bristol Bay’s salmon run is hard to grasp.

The six-week fishery, which reaches a fever pitch for about ten days, is arguably the greatest migration on earth. Because it is invisible until the last few days, it is rarely recognized. Great migrations might bring to mind vast herds of wildebeast crossing the Serengeti in Africa; those number a mere 1.5 million.

Then there’s what many now call the largest mammal migration — fruit bats from the Congo to neighboring Zambia over 90 days each fall. The size? Only 10 million.

This year’s forecasted total run of 40.18 million sockeyes is expected to net a harvest of 26.1 million salmon.

It’s difficult to find, by any measure, a likeness in the natural world of the journey Bristol Bay salmon make from one of the Bay’s five river systems to the ocean, across the Bering Sea and North Pacific Ocean in a vast loop that brings them back to the Bay to reproduce and die.

It is the reproduction part that fisheries managers focus on. Indeed, state law requires them to manage for escapement to maintain sustainability for each species and timing in each salmon river, every year.

Escapement in the Wood and Nushagak rivers of Bristol Bay is tracking well with forecasts made by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game pre-season. As of yesterday, June 30, Wood River escapement was 603,000 sockeye out of a forecasted escapement of 980,000, putting it at the 61 percent mark. In the Nushagak a cumulative escapment of 243,000 sockeye have been counted, 32 percent of the 770,000 expected.

That is good news, but even better news is when compared to last year’s escapement on that date, escapement on the Nushagak this year is higher. And remember that last year the Nushagak District salmon run broke all historic records. On July 1, 2018, ADF&G broke the news that harvest in the Nushagak reached 1.77 million sockeye, a new record. Their escapment at that time was 183,440 sockeye out of a predicted 770,000 salmon (same as this year.)

The Wood River escapement last year at this time was 1.2 million out of a prediction of 1.53 million or 78 percent acheived. The Wood River is part of the Nushagak District, and last year was a huge contributor to the record-breaking district totals.

Historically, Bristol Bay’s peak is coming at the end of this week. The latest analysis from the Port Moller Test Fishery notes “The substantial uptick in the daily index today [June 29, 2019] indicates the run will continue to build at least through July 4, and possibly beyond.

“We will need to know what the remainder of the test fishing indices look like to see how big the run may be beyond July 4 (we only predict the catch plus escapment that is between Port Moller and the inshore districts). The daily C+E will likely bounce around our current projection but should total around 8 million fish for the period June 29-July 4.”

The Port Moller team also notes that there is no indication that the run is early.

“If the run is on time, the index should begin to fall tomorrow [Sunday, June 30] and continue to do so. Sustained catch indices over the next several days would indicate a later run that is larger than the pre-season forecast.”

Egegik and Nushagak Districts have dominated the test fishery at Port Moller so far, underscoring that the run has not reach its peak at Port Moller, about 5-6 days of swim time for a salmon to the Bay.

Harvest totals in the Nushagak District, as of yesterday, were 4.1 million sockeye out of a pre-season catch forecast of 7.97 million.

On the east side of the Bay, the Egegik to date harvest of 2.1 million compares to the pre-season forecast of 7.04 million.

Bristol Bay’s total catch is 6.8 million sockeye, already more than any other area in the state. Total sockeye catches are 9.6 million fish, with 1.4 million coming from the PWS/Copper River, 1.2 million from the South Peninsula.

Total salmon landings of all species in Alaska are at 22.84 million, with chums making up 3.6 million and pinks, to date, at 9.6 million.

This story was originally published on SeafoodNews.com, a subscription site. It is reprinted with permission.