Saving Seafood

Senate Subcommittee to Continue Hearing Series on Magnuson-Stevens Act

October 20, 2017 โ€” WASHINGTON โ€” The following was released by the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science & Transportation:

U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), chairman of the Subcommittee on Oceans, Atmosphere, Fisheries, and Coast Guard, will convene the hearing titled โ€œReauthorization of the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act: Fisheries Science,โ€ at 2:30 p.m. on Tuesday, October 24, 2017. The hearing is the fourth of the series and will focus on the state of our nationโ€™s fisheries and the science that supports sustainable management.

Witnesses:

  โ€“  Mr. Karl Haflinger, Founder and President, Sea State, Inc
โ€“  Dr. Ray Hilborn, Professor, University of Washington School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences
โ€“  Dr. Michael Jones, Professor, Michigan State University Quantitative Fisheries Center
โ€“  Dr. Larry McKinney, Director, Texas A&M University Harte Research Institute for Gulf of Mexico Studies

Hearing Details:

Tuesday, October 24, 2017
2:30 p.m.
Subcommittee on Oceans, Atmosphere, Fisheries and Coast Guard

This hearing will take place in Russell Senate Office Building, Room 253. Witness testimony, opening statements, and a live video of the hearing will be available on www.commerce.senate.gov.

Authors of Recent Research on Forage Fish Respond to Criticism from Lenfest Task Force

WASHINGTON โ€“ September 20, 2017 โ€“ In April, a team of respected fisheries scientists led by Dr. Ray Hilborn published a study that found fishing of forage species likely has a lower impact on predators than previously thought. This conclusion challenged previous forage fish research, most notably the 2012 Lenfest Oceans Program report โ€œLittle Fish, Big Impact,โ€ which recommended leaving more forage fish in the water to be eaten by predators.

The Lenfest task force responded to this new research with a Letter to the Editor of Fisheries Research, where the Hilborn et al. study was published. In response to this letter, Hilborn et al. wrote their own letter, which was published August 5 in Fisheries Research and is reproduced below:

Our paper highlighted that key biological relationships between forage fish and their predators were not included in the models used in the LENFEST report. These missing elements were (1) the high level of natural variability of forage fish, (2) the weak relationship between forage fish spawning stock size and recruitment and the role of environmental productivity regimes, (3) the size distribution of forage fish, their predators and subsequent size selective predation and (4) the changes in spatial distribution of the forage fish as it influences the reproductive success of predators. We demonstrate that each of these elements can have a major impact on how one evaluates the impact of fishing forage species on their predators. The LENFEST report used EwE models without these factors to determine the very specific recommendations they made about how to manage forage fish.

We certainly agree that in some cases fishing forage fish will affect their predators, but in other cases there may be little if any impact โ€“ it all depends on the biology that was not included in the models used.

This critique of our paper suggests that we are offering alternative evaluation of the impact of fishing forage fish that are, like the LENFEST recommendations, broadly applicable. We make no such claim and much of their critique is against the straw man they have constructed. We are not arguing that fishing forage fish does not affect predators. Rather we show how, in specific cases, there may be little if any impact of fishing forage fish and that general conclusions simply are not possible.

We suggest that the very specific quantitative measures proposed in the LENFEST report result from models that do not have these components and that if these elements were included in the models the conclusions would likely be different. While the authors of the letter argue that they conducted a comprehensive literature review, the specific recommendations came from their modelling, and it is the modelling we criticize and their critique makes few attempts to defend.

We stated โ€œPikitch et al. (2012) argued forcefully that their analysis provided general conclusions that should be broadly applied. However, relevant factors are missing from the analysis contained in their workโ€ฆโ€ Their response is that their recommendations were โ€œtailored to the level of uncertainty and data availability of each system.โ€ What we refer as โ€œgeneral conclusionsโ€ contain a set of recommendations for three uncertainty tiers, but our point is that the biology of each system is different, not the availability of data or uncertainty, and the differences in biology should be considered when evaluating management options for forage fisheries.

The specificity of their recommendations is clear โ€“ for high information situations (which would include the California Current, Humboldt Current, NE Atlantic sand eel and herring) their recommendation is โ€œIn any case, lower biomass limits should not be less than 0.3 B0, an MAX F should not exceed 0.75 FMSY or 0.75 M.โ€ These numbers are not the result of their case studies or literature review but the result of their models that did not include a number of important elements.

Finally, we agree that situations where detailed information is lacking are challenging for management, and that is why it is important to identify species and system attributes that make systems less resilient to fishing. Low trophic level species constitute the largest potential sources of increased fish production in the world and much of the recent suggestions for โ€œbalanced harvestingโ€ relies on significant increases in exploitation rates on trophic levels associated with forage fish. Since almost all of these potential low trophic level species would be considered in the โ€œlow information tierโ€ the LENFEST recommendation is that new fisheries not be allowed until sufficient data are collected. Given that few countries will devote resources to research on fisheries that do not exist, the LENFEST recommendation essentially says no new fisheries on these species, and thus in effect precludes development of what may be significant food resources.

We believe the authors of our paper and the LENFEST report all accept that in some cases predators may be highly dependent on forage fish, but in other cases there may be little dependence. Management should be based upon what is known about the dependence of the predators on forage fish and the relative importance the local agencies place on maintaining high predator abundance verses the benefits of full exploitation of the forage fish. The major forage fisheries of the world are very valuable and currently intensively studied. What is needed for each of these fisheries is a new set of models that incorporate the elements that were missing from the LENFEST analysis.

Ray Hilborn, Ricardo O. Amoroso, Eugenia Bogazzi, Olaf P. Jensen, Ana M. Parma, Cody Szuwalski, Carl J. Walters

Forage Fish Should Be Managed on a Case-by-Case Basis: Menhaden Science Committee

Findings by ASMFC BERP Workgroup align with recent forage fish research by Hilborn et al.

WASHINGTON โ€“ July 31, 2017 โ€“ The following was released by the Menhaden Fisheries Coalition. Saving Seafood previously covered Hilborn et al., which found that previous forage fish research may have overestimated the impact of forage fishing on their predators. Saving Seafood also produced a video about the study, which can be found here:

Earlier this year, a team of scientists led by Dr. Ray Hilborn found, among other conclusions, that forage fish are best managed on a case-by-case basis that accounts for their unique environmental roles. In a memo earlier this month, an inter-state scientific review committee tasked with incorporating the ecological role of menhaden into management determined that this conclusion aligns with their own findings.

The Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commissionโ€™s (ASMFC) Biological and Ecological Reference Points (BERP) Workgroup, which is leading development of ecosystem-based fisheries management for Atlantic menhaden, reviewed the Hilborn et al. paper earlier this summer. It concluded that the paperโ€™s recommendation of using stock-specific models to evaluate ecosystem needs were similar to models being developed by the workgroup.

โ€œThe [workgroup] is currently developing a suite of intermediate complexity menhaden-specific models that align with the general recommendations from both Dr. Hilborn and the 2015 Stock Assessment Peer Review Panel,โ€ said the July 14 memo, Review of Hilborn et al. 2017.[1] โ€œThe [workgroup] anticipates that these models will be ready for peer review in 2019.โ€

The Hilborn et al. study, published in April in Fisheries Research, found that there were several variables in forage fish species that make imprecise, one-size-fits-all management approaches difficult. Most importantly, there seems to be little correlation between the number of predator species in the water and the number of forage fish, making it nearly impossible to determine a catch level that is appropriate for forage fish as a whole. Other variables include the natural variability of forage fish, which is different from species to species, and relative locations of predators and forage species.

โ€œWe suggest that any evaluation of harvest policies for forage fish needs to include these issues, and that models tailored for individual species and ecosystems are needed to guide fisheries management policy,โ€ the paper finds.

The ASMFC will consider the work of the BERP, including its review of Dr. Hilbornโ€™s paper, at its upcoming 2017 summer meeting, to be held from August 1-3 in Alexandria, Virginia.

[1] ASMFC Biological Ecological Reference Points Workgroup, โ€œMemorandum: Review of Hilborn et al. 2017,โ€ July 14, 2017

University of Washington: Bottom-trawling techniques leave different traces on the seabed

July 18, 2017 โ€” The following is excerpted from an article published yesterday by the University of Washington:

Fishing fleets around the world rely on nets towed along the bottom to capture fish. Roughly one-fifth of the fish eaten globally are caught by this method, known as bottom trawling, which has been criticized for its effects on the marine environment.

An international group has taken a close look at how different types of bottom trawling affect the seabed. It finds that all trawling is not created equal โ€” the most benign type removes 6 percent of the animal and plant life on the seabed each time the net passes, while most other methods remove closer to a third. A University of Washington professor is among the main authors on the study, led by Bangor University in the U.K. and published July 17 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The meta-analysis looks at 70 previous studies of bottom trawling, most in the Eastern U.S. and Western Europe. It looks across those studies to compare the effects on the seabed of four techniques: otter trawling, a common method that uses two โ€œdoorsโ€ towed vertically in the water or along the bottom to hold the net open; beam trawls, which hold the net open with a heavy metal beam; towed dredges, which drag a flat or toothed metal bar directly along the seafloor; and hydraulic dredges, which use water to loosen the seabed and collect animals that live in the sediment.

โ€œWe found that otter trawls penetrated the seabed 2.4 cm (0.94 inches) on average and caused the least amount of depletion of marine organisms, removing 6 percent of biota per trawl pass on the seabed,โ€ first author Jan Geert Hiddink at Bangor University said in a statement. โ€œIn contrast, we found that hydraulic dredges penetrated the seabed 16.1 cm (6.3 inches) on average and caused the greatest depletion, removing 41 percent of the biota per fishing pass.โ€

Depending on the type of fishing gear, penetration depth and environmental variables such as water depth and sediment composition, it took from 1.9 to 6.4 years for the seabed biota, or marine plants and animals, to recover.

โ€œThese findings fill an essential science gap that will inform policy and management strategies for sustainable fishing practices by enabling us to evaluate the trade-off between fish production for food, and the environmental cost of different harvesting techniques,โ€ said Ray Hilborn, a UW fisheries professor and one of four co-authors who designed the study.

โ€œThereโ€™s a common perception that you trawl the bottom and the ecosystem is destroyed,โ€ Hilborn said. โ€œThis study shows that the most common kind of trawling, otter trawling, does not destroy the marine ecosystem, and places that are trawled once a year really wonโ€™t be very different from places that are not trawled at all.โ€

Read the full report here

What factors play a role in analyzing forage fish fishing regulation?

July 7, 2017 โ€” The interaction of predators, fishing and forage fish is more complicated than previously thought and that several factors must be considered, says researcher.

The group of researchers was evaluating the interaction after results from an earlier report found that fishing of forage species had a large effect on predator population, said the Marine Ingredients Organization (IFFO). Those harvested fish are used in several areas including as feed ingredients.

The new study was initiated because there were some questions regarding the methods used in the initial project, said Ray Hilborn, with the school of aquatic and fishery sciences at the University of Washington and corresponding author.

โ€œWhen the original Lenfest [Forage Fish Task Force] report came out, a few of us said it seemed that the methods they were using were not up to the questions they were asking,โ€ he told FeedNavigator. The report also offered several policy recommendations, he added.

โ€œIt was on our radar screen,โ€ he said. โ€œAnd one of the things Iโ€™ve been interested in looking at is the intensity of natural fluctuation in populations, and forage fish are notable for how much they vary naturally.โ€

The interaction between forage fish populations and predators is more complicated than may have been suggested by earlier studies tracking that relationship, and several factors need to be considered when analyzing the role that fishing plays on that relationship, he said. โ€œThe key point isnโ€™t that there isnโ€™t an impact, but that you have to argue case-by-case,โ€ he added.

Several factors need to be considered when assessing the interaction among predators, forage species, and fishing of those forage species, the researchers said in their study. โ€œWe show that taking account of these factors generally tends to make the impact of fishing forage fish on their predators less than estimated from trophic models,โ€ they added.

Read the full story at Feed Navigator

FRI trains the fishery managers of tomorrow

June 26, 2017 โ€” Area management biologists in Bristol Bay are responsible for tracking and maintaining the escapement numbers of multiple salmon species in multiple river systems. Not only are they charged with preserving the health of the runโ€™s biology, but they are often held, at least partly, accountable for the economic viability of the fishery as well. One of the inherent challenges of the job is that the sustainability of the salmon run is not always synonymous with the profit margins of industry entities, and the managers are often the first to be blamed when the catch and escapement donโ€™t go as planned.

The University of Washingtonโ€™s Fisheries Research Institute is taking on the tall task of training those who hope to one day be fishery managers. Seven grad studentsโ€”two from the University of Alaska Fairbanks, three from the University of Washington and two from Kamchatka State Technical Institute in Russiaโ€”are taking the three week course at FRIโ€™s cabin on Aleknagik Lake.

Professors Milo Adkinson and Ray Hilborn are teaching the course.  โ€œWe bring our graduate students in fisheries out to see a real fishery in action,โ€ said Adkinson.

For the classโ€™s main term project, the students will work directly with the three area management biologists in Bristol Bay as the salmon run is going on.

โ€œThey get to pretend that theyโ€™re managing the fisheries,โ€ said Adkinson. โ€œSo Iโ€™ve got a group of students that are going be deciding whether to open and close the Naknek-Kvichak district every day.โ€

The students will simulate making announcements relevant to the current salmon run, allocating when and where sport and commercial fisherman are allowed to fish. They will then be given a math equation which will determine the catch and escapement numbers based on the management decisions they made. The students will receive feedback from the actual area managers as the course progresses.

โ€œWe had one year where the students let several million fish escape into the Egegik system. I think the managers got a kick out of that,โ€ said Adkinson.

Tim Sands is the area management biologist for the Nushagak and Togiak districts. He gave a lecture at FRI this week, and is making himself available to answer any questions the students charged with simulating his job might have.

โ€œSo thereโ€™s rules like what time of the tide you have to open the set netsโ€”itโ€™s all specified in the management plan. They can ask me questions like that, or things about allocation,โ€ said Sands. โ€œThatโ€™s what I do. Tell them the rules of the district.โ€

Read the full story at KDLG

Ray Hilborn: World fish stocks stable

June 12, 2017 โ€” Speaking at the SeaWeb Seafood Summit on Wednesday, 7 June in Seattle, Washington, U.S.A., University of Washington fisheries researcher Ray Hilborn said the perception that the worldโ€™s fish stocks are declining is incorrect, and that fishing could sustainably be stepped up in areas with good management.

Hilborn pointed to figures from the RAM Legacy Stock Assessment Database that indicate that fish stocks dipped through the last part of the 20th century, but have since recovered in many fisheries.

โ€œThere is a very broad perception that fish stocks around the world are declining. Many news coverages in the media will always begin with โ€˜fish stocks in the world are declining.โ€™ And this simply isnโ€™t true. They are increasing in many places and in fact, globally, the best assessments are that fish stocks are actually stable and probably increasing on average now,โ€ Hilborn said.

The RAM Legacy Database collects information on all the stocks in the world that have been scientifically assessed, which is a little more than half of the worldโ€™s catch.

โ€œWhat we donโ€™t really know about is the big fisheries in Asia, in the sense that we donโ€™t have scientific assessments of the trends in abundance,โ€ Hilborn said.

He added that the general consensus is that the status of those stocks is poor, a result of, among other things, poor fisheries management, reinforcing surveys that have shown a direct correlation between high stock abundance and high intensity of management.

โ€œFor most of the developed world fisheriesโ€™ management is quite intense, and South and Southeast Asia stand out as really not having much in the way of fisheriesโ€™ management systems, particularly any form a enforcement of regulations, if regulations exists,โ€ he said.

But in much of the developed world, Hilborn said fish stocks are robust, even when they sometimes get labeled as overfished.

Read the full story at Seafood Source

Ray Hilborn, others launch I-FIN, a new fisheries data network

June 7, 2017 โ€” A new scientific advisory group called International Fisheries Information Network (I-FIN) is refuting a commonly held belief that all fisheries are in decline.

I-FIN believes that there are highly sustainable fisheries in the developed world and that lessons from those fisheries can be used to improve fisheries in the developing world, according to Saving Seafood, a news and advocacy organization for the U.S. domestic seafood industry.

The group is headed by internationally recognized marine scientists, economists, and fisheries managers and launched ahead of this yearโ€™s SeaWeb Seafood Summit in Seattle, Washington, U.S.A.

I-FIN has set an ambitious goal of being a global clearinghouse for information concerning how fisheries are managed, which management styles are successful and how those successes can be adopted to create a more sustainable global fishery, according to its mission statement.

Read the full story at Seafood Source

New Scientific Organization Launches to Share Successful Fisheries Management Across Globe

SEATTLE (Saving Seafood) โ€” June 5, 2017 โ€” Fisheries in the U.S. and other parts of the developed world have provided a blueprint for successful fisheries management globally, according to a newly formed scientific advisory group that plans to take the lessons learned from these successes and apply them to developing fisheries in the rest of the world.

The organization, the International Fisheries Information Network (I-FIN), debuted ahead of this yearโ€™s SeaWeb Seafood Summit in Seattle. Headed by internationally recognized marine scientists, economists, and fisheries managers, I-FIN hopes to be a global resource on where fisheries are being managed successfully, why theyโ€™re successful, and how those successes can be adopted elsewhere.

โ€œWeโ€™ve got a team of people who can provide the most authoritative, scientific advice on whatโ€™s happening in global fisheries, and what has been shown to work to improve the performance of fisheries,โ€ said Dr. Ray Hilborn, professor of marine science at the University of Washington and one of the members of the I-FIN steering committee.

Ray Hilborn on I-FIN from Saving Seafood on Vimeo.

According to I-FIN, over the last several decades, fisheries in much of the developed world have quietly transformed themselves into global leaders in sustainable management. In places like the United States, Iceland, and New Zealand, fishing mortality has been reduced, abundance of many fish species has increased, and more species than ever before are being harvested at a sustainable rate.

โ€œThe greatest insight that weโ€™ve uncovered so far is that there are a lot of really sustainable fish stocks,โ€ said Chris Costello, professor of natural resource economics at UC Santa Barbara. โ€œMany people donโ€™t realize that in the U.S., most of our fish are some of the most sustainable on the planet, and there are other places where you find a similar story.โ€

Chris Costello on I-FIN from Saving Seafood on Vimeo.

Successful fisheries, like those in the U.S., have several traits in common. Their fisheries are closely monitored and collect significant amounts of data, their management adheres to scientific advice, and their regulations are strictly enforced. Many fisheries in the developing world, in contrast, are data poor, which, combined with weak enforcement, increases the likelihood of overfishing. Identifying and closing these data gaps is one of I-FINโ€™s top priorities.

โ€œWe know a lot about fisheries in some areas of the world and not very much about fisheries in other areas of the world,โ€ said Mike Melnychuk, a research scientist at the University of Washington. โ€œIn the developing world, mostly, we know very little. What weโ€™re trying to do is address some of those data gaps by looking at other methods, other kinds of approaches for advancing our understanding in whatโ€™s going on with fisheries there, and how we can improve fisheries for peopleโ€™s livelihoods.โ€

Mike Melnychuk on I-FIN from Saving Seafood on Vimeo.

Much of North America and Europe have collected significant amounts of data on their fisheries, as well as certain fisheries in South America, such as Peruvian anchovetta. However, many fisheries in Africa and Asia have relatively little data collected on them. Compounding this data gap are the unique challenges posed by small-scale fisheries, which make up around 90 percent of fisheries in the developing world and have not traditionally been closely monitored. Successfully managing these fisheries will likely require a different approach than in larger-scale fisheries.

โ€œIn the developed world context, where the rule of law is strong, where there are highly evolved processes for doing stock assessments, or making a bridge between research and management, thereโ€™s a different set of opportunities for having research make a difference. When you move to the developing world, that really is not appropriate, because of capacity, because of the nature of the fisheries, because of the remoteness of the people, language, politics, many different things,โ€ said Neil Andrew, a professor at the University of Wollongong in Australia.

Neil Andrew on I-FIN from Saving Seafood on Vimeo.

โ€œYou need to take a philosophically different approach to improving fisheries,โ€ he said. โ€œI think we take the best of the lessons from the developing worldโ€”and there are some fundamental ecological truths about catching fishโ€”but I think we need to think about it differently and with a different skill set, which is much more social, which is much more invested in the management process rather than the provision of data.โ€

I-FINโ€™s current efforts are an outgrowth of previous efforts to monitor progress in fisheries management at the global level, particularly the RAM Legacy Stock Assessment Database. The information gathered by the RAM Database, particularly the positive developments, has helped I-FIN identify trends in global fisheries, and informs the organizationโ€™s current message.

โ€œThe motivation was that we were seeing all these very bad, sad pictures of fisheries going really in the wrong direction, and we thought โ€˜well, there are all these NGOs and all these processes that are painting a picture that is probably worse than it is,โ€™โ€ said Ana Parma, a researcher with the Research Council of Argentina. โ€œThat was our impression from the fisheries people, because we have seen some improvement in many of them and we thought โ€˜the only way is to ground these statements on real data.โ€™ That was the motivation to collect RAM.โ€

Ana Parma on I-FIN from Saving Seafood on Vimeo.

I-FIN hopes that its efforts will change the way the fisheries are perceived, and that successful management receives more recognition.

โ€œThe common perception that fish stocks everywhere are in decline are wrong, and we now have very strong evidence, and I would argue irrefutable evidence, that thatโ€™s the case,โ€ said Dr. Hilborn. โ€œSo weโ€™re hoping to change the general perception about the status of global fisheries.โ€

Authors of New Research on Forage Fish Respond to Critiques from Lenfest Task Force

June 5, 2017 โ€” The following was written by authors of a new paper on forage fish that found that previous research likely overestimated the impact of forage fishing. The piece addresses criticisms made by the Lenfest Forage Fish Task Force. The authors are Dr. Ray Hilborn, Dr. Ricardo O. Amoroso, Dr. Eugenia Bogazzi, Dr. Ana M. Parma, Dr. Cody Szuwalski, and Dr. Carl J. Walters:

First we note that the press releases and video related to our paper (Hilborn et al. 2017) were not products of the authors or their Universities or agencies. Some of the authors were interviewed for the video, and each of us must be prepared to defend what was said on the video. The LENFEST Task Force authors criticize our statement in the video that:

โ€œWhat we found is there was essentially no relationship between how many forage fish there are in the ocean and how well predators do in terms of whether the populations increase or decrease.โ€

Our paper was specifically about U.S. forage fish, where we found very few relationships that were stronger than one might expect by chance. It is certainly likely that there are places where there is a significant relationship, but we noted that the LENFEST report did not include any analysis of the empirical data and relied only on models. Our point is that the models used by the LENFEST Task Force assume there will always be such a relationship, whereas in many, and perhaps most cases there may be little if any impact of fishing forage fish on the abundance of their predators. The scientific literature suggests that central place foragers, such as seabirds and pinnipeds at their breeding colonies, may be exceptions, and we acknowledge as much in our paper (p. 2 of corrected proofs, paragraph starting at the bottom of first column).

Specific response to the โ€œshortcomingsโ€ of our study listed in the LENFEST Task Force response

  1. We included species not considered by the LENFEST Task Force to be โ€œforage fish.โ€ We simply looked for harvested fish and invertebrate populations that were an important part (> 20%) of the diet of the predators, and thus we would argue that our analysis is appropriate and relevant to the key question: โ€œDoes fishing the major prey species of marine predators affect their abundance?โ€
  2. The LENFEST Task Force authors criticize our use of estimates of abundance of forage fish provided by stock assessment models, and then suggest that because these models were not designed to identify correlations between predators and prey we were committing the same error that the LENFEST Task Force did, using models for a purpose they were not designed for. This is wrong: the stock assessment models are designed to estimate the abundance of fish stocks and the estimates of forage species we used to examine correlations with predators were considered the best available estimates at the time of the analysis. Similarly, the stock assessment models used for the predatory fish species represent the best available estimate of the abundance, and rate of change in abundance, of these predators. We did not claim the stock assessment models told us anything directly about the relationship between forage abundance and predator rates of change. We simply asked โ€œIs there any empirical relationship between forage species abundance and either the abundance or rate of change in abundance of their predators?โ€ The answer, with very few exceptions, was โ€œno.โ€
  3. The LENFEST Task Force authors criticize our use of U.S. fisheries because they are better managed than the global average. Most of the key criticisms we made of the LENFEST study were unrelated to how fisheries are managed, but to the basic biological issues: recruitment variation, weak relationship between spawning biomass and recruitment, relative size of fish taken by predators and the fishery and the importance of local density of forage fish to predators rather than total abundance of the stock. U.S. fisheries are not only better managed, but also often better researched, so U.S. fisheries are a good place to start examining the biological assumptions of the models used by the LENFEST Task Force.
  4. We did not argue that fisheries management does not need to change โ€“ instead we argued that general rules such as the LENFEST Task Forceโ€™s recommendation to cut fishing mortality rates to half of the levels associated with maximum sustainable yield for โ€œmost forage fisheries now considered well managedโ€ (LENFEST Summary of New Scientific Analysis) are not supported by sound science. Our analysis suggests that thereโ€™s little empirical evidence that such a policy will increase predatory fish abundance. Instead, every case needs to be examined individually and management decisions should weigh the costs (economic, social, and ecological) of restricting forage fisheries to levels below MSY against the predicted benefits, while accounting for uncertainty in both. Our abstract concludes โ€œWe suggest that any evaluation of harvest policies for forage fish needs to include these issues, and that models tailored for individual species and ecosystems are needed to guide fisheries management policy.โ€
  5. Essington and Plagรกnyi feel we incorrectly characterized their paper. We simply rely on the words from the abstract of their paper. โ€œWe find that the depth and breadth with which predator species are represented are commonly insufficient for evaluating sensitivities of predator populations to forage fish depletion. We demonstrate that aggregating predator species into functional groups creates bias in foodweb metrics such as connectance.โ€ Carl Walters, one of our co-authors and the person who conceived and built the EcoSim model certainly agrees that the models the LENFEST Task Force used were insufficient for the task they attempted.

Moving forward

We agree that the next steps are to move beyond U.S. fisheries and we are doing so. We have current projects doing a global analysis of relationships between forage fish abundance and the population dynamics of their predators. We have an almost complete review of recruitment patterns in forage fish stocks. We are doing specific case studies of other regions with models explicitly designed to evaluate the impact on predators of fishing forage fish. Finally, we are exploring alternative management strategies for forage fish, considering alternative recruitment patterns, across a range of case studies. We hope that many of the authors of the LENFEST report will collaborate with us in these efforts.