April 9, 2020 โ If you find it hard to imagine a college professor (of a subject other than epidemiology) drawing a crowd nowadays, Iโm with you. Yet that is exactly what fisheries scientist Ray Hilborn did April 2.
To a sit-in-your-office, stare-at-your-monitor webinar, no less!
Itโs conceivable that the size of the audience reflected a degree of covid-19-inspired restlessness. But ennui alone cannot explain the more than 450 people who signed up for Hilbornโs presentation on the status of fish stocks and the role of management. And rather than dwindle, as webinar audiences tend to do, by the time the session ended Hilbornโs audience had swollen to โan easy 600,โ according to NOAAโs Tracy Gill, who coordinated the event.
To be fair, Hilborn was no stranger to his audience. A professor of aquatic and fishery science at the University of Washington, heโs written several books, including, most recently, โOcean Recovery: A Sustainable Future for Global Fisheriesโ (co-authored by his wife, Ulrike Hilborn) as well as scores of peer-reviewed papers, and is respected by industry, academics, and NGOs.
His message Thursday was reassuring โ more or less. Listen to scientists long enough, and you realize that you can get yourself into trouble reading between the lines.
Many of you, for example, will recall how in 2006, mainstream journalists leveraged a study led by the Canadian ecologist Boris Worm on the loss of biodiversity in ocean ecosystems services into the disappearance of fish by 2048. โOne very small part of the paper,โ Hilborn recalled, extrapolated from catch trends and came up with a downward curve that โhit the y axis,โ in the professorโs words, at 100 percent collapsed in 2048.