December 27, 2024 — Regional models being developed by NOAA Fisheries indicate that some fish and crab may shift further north in Alaskan waters than previously predicted due to climate change.
A new report issued by NOAA Fisheries on Dec. 17 says scientists have developed new models that predict more extreme changes in the ecosystem of the eastern Bering Sea by the end of the century, with larger summer northward shifts and changes in areas occupied by important commercial crab and fish species.
Specifically, the majority of models estimate changes in the center of distribution for several commercially important species. They predict that most species’ summer distributions will shift north by between 50 and 200 kilometers by 2080-2089.
Scientists also project large declines in the amount of area occupied by red king crab and snow crab and potentially northern rock sole in summer months, a substantial increase in area occupied by arrowtooth flounder who are a key predator of walleye pollock and declines in probability of occurrence of most species in areas with low pH and oxygen concentration.