April 24, 2023 — Bristol Bay should see relatively strong sockeye runs this summer, though they’re not expected to be near last year’s record-breaking run and harvest.
Around 50 million sockeye are forecasted to return to the bay, according to the state’s forecast for the 2023 fishing season. The total escapement is projected to reach 13 million with around 37 million fish available to harvest.
That’s a good deal lower than last year, and it’s also lower than the average over the last 10 years. But looking a little further back, this summer’s run is still expected to be 40% above the bay’s long-term average.
The University of Washington produced its own forecast for Bristol Bay’s 2023 season.
The strength of the salmon returns varies across river systems, and the Nushagak District, on the west side of the bay, has seen some of the biggest sockeye runs and highest harvests in recent years.
“I think the reason why we’re getting these big runs in the Nushagak is because the warmer winters allow for a longer growing season,” said Tim Sands, the Alaska Department of Fish and Game’s management biologist for the area, at a recent presentation in Dillingham. “So there’s just that extra growing period where there’s more food for them to eat. And they get a little bit bigger. And as they’re bigger going out to the ocean. They’re more competitive and they survive at a little higher rate.”
In the 2023 commercial fishing outlook, the department also raised concerns about fishermen under-reporting of king salmon harvests and said tenders should expect to be boarded and checked for undocumented king salmon.
Here’s a rundown of this summer’s forecasts and regulations by district.