December 18, 2018 — The eastern Bering Sea (EBS) Pacific cod catch could drop again in 2021 and 2022, as scientific forecasts indicate 2020 could see the lowest federal total allowable catch (TAC) since the early-1980s, according to an Undercurrent News analysis of government scientific data.
Data presented in the 2018 stock assessment report from Grant Thompson, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) scientist and an expert on the cod fishery, suggests the TAC will bottom out in 2022 and then increase again. However, new models to be developed in 2019 will include alternative methods of accounting for the increased biomass in the northern Bering Sea (NBS) and could see this bleak outlook improve.
In 2018, the North Pacific Fishery Management Council (NPFMC) has indicated the federal TAC in 2020 could be cut to 124,625 metric tons, compared to 166,475t in 2019 and 188,136t this year. The TAC for 2019 has been recommended by NPFMC at the meeting in Anchorage, Alaska, last week, but the 2020 level is only provisional and will be reviewed next year in light of new data. The NPFMC went with Thompson’s number for 2019, not a lower one from a team of scientists who take into account the stock assessment report.
Then, Thompson’s report gives various projections for female spawning biomass and catches through 2030. The first is the most relevant, however, he said.