If Omega Protein closed today, total employment for the region would decline by 519 jobs, income would drop by $22.8 million and total economic output would decrease by $88.2 million, a new report finds. And the lion's share of the hardship would land at Northumberland County's doorstep.
Leading up to the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission's anticipated vote Nov. 9 on whether to impose more stringent fishing guidelines on the menhaden reduction industry, the Virginia Institute of Marine Science has drafted a lengthy study on the species' social and economic importance to the area and how any harvest decline might impact the industry.
According to the report, if the plant were shuttered, Northumberland would see a 14.3 percent and 8.1 percent decline in economic output and employment, respectively, figures that equate to 347 jobs, $16 million of household income, and $78.6 million of economic output.
The report "An Assessment of the Menhaden in Chesapeake Bay Region," was prepared by James Kirkley, with VIMS, in response to a request by the Virginia Marine Resources Commission to explore the economic effects that further limiting menhaden catches would have on the area.
The Virginia fishery is currently subject to an annual quota of 109 metric tons, a cap established in 2006. According to the study, between 2007 and 2009 Omega Protein has consistently harvested approximately 85,000 metric tons from the Bay, which falls below its allowable catch. The report concludes that the Bay quota could be reduced to at least 85,000 thousand metric tons with "no appreciable economic impacts.'' The impacts of quotas below that threshold would vary based on "how the fishery responded and the availability and abundance of menhaden in the coastal ocean."'
The ASMFC has only proposed addressing '"spawning-aged fish" through what is known as a '"maximum spawning potential," or MSP. The current MSP is 8 percent, which means that 8 percent of reproduction-aged fish are prevented from harvest. The ASMFC has proposed increasing that level to as high as 40 percent.
Overall, the ASMFC has received upwards of 90,000 public comments on the measures, most of which favor increasing regulations. That wasn't the case during a public hearing in Heathsville where local watermen and industry representatives decried the proposals, pointing out that they could prove devastating to the area economy. And of all of the localities on the Chesapeake Bay – the report evaluates approximately 40 – Northumberland would see the largest economic impact, the study concludes.
However, in addition to the economic question, Kirkley's study asks a larger, social question: Does society place a higher preference or value on the ecological goods and services of menhaden or on the menhaden fishery?
The answer was surprising. In a survey conducted by an independent firm, individuals expressed a strong preference to not reducing the quota.
"The result that society preferred to maintain the status quo was unexpected. The expected result was that society would have a strong preference to reduce the allowable Bay quota," the report concluded. "Possible reasons for the preferences include a growing sympathy with watermen, an ailing economy and desire by individuals to prevent additional unemployment, and an inadequate understanding of the potential ecological goods and services of menhaden.''
According to the report, however, the extent of the social impacts remain unknown. Only a limited number of interviews with plant employees were conducted. But of the 12 Omega employees interviewed, all indicated happiness with their job and stated they would find other work in the event of a closure of the fishery, but not likely at the same pay level with the same benefits.
Read the article from the Northumberland Echo.