May 2, 2019 — The rising global demand for seafood and a projected slowdown in the growth of fisheries and aquaculture production, particularly by China – the world’s leading provider of these products – will lead to a decade of higher prices, anticipates the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
In 2016, total fish production reached an all-time high of 171 million metric tons (MT), with wild-capture fisheries and aquaculture providing 53 percent and 47 percent respectively. Of the total, 88 percent or 151 million MT was utilized for direct human consumption. Capture fisheries production accounted for 90.9 million MT, while aquaculture supplied 80 million MT. Although the contribution of farmed species to human consumption is higher than that of wild-caught fish.
Based on the assumption of higher demand and technological improvements, the overall production is expected to continue to expand, reaching 201 million MT by 2030. While this would represent a growth of 18 percent or 30 million MT over 2016, it amounts to an annual growth rate of just 1 percent for the 2016-2030 period, compared with 2.3 percent for 2003-2016.
By 2030, the FAO expects capture fisheries production to reach about 91 million MT, only 1 percent more than in 2016. It foresees that factors influencing this limited growth will include a 17 percent decrease of capture fisheries in China due to the implementation of new policies, which it reckons will be compensated for by increased catches in a number of other regions. In this regard, it believes there will be higher landings from fishing areas where stocks of certain species are recovering due to improved management, as well as increased catches in waters of the few countries where there are underfished resources, as well as where new fishing opportunities exist or where fisheries management measures are less restrictive.
In addition, the FAO believes there’ll be enhanced use of fisheries production, including reduced onboard discards, waste, and losses as driven by legislation or higher market fish prices. But it also acknowledges that in some years, the El Niño phenomenon can be expected to reduce catches in South America, especially for anchoveta, resulting in an overall decrease of world capture fisheries production of about 2 percent in those years.