Social Science Industry Data and SMAST Studies to be Included
WASHINGTON (Saving Seafood)– January 16, 2014 — NOAA's Northeast Regional Science Center has proposed an "empirical approach for estimating abundance of yellowtail flounder" that will allow the center to consider additional data and information not previously considered in assessments including information collected by the Center from industry, facts and figures collected by the Center's social science division, and studies conducted by the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth School for Marine Science and Technology.
According to a letter from Science Center Director Bill Karp to the New England Fisheries Management Council (NEFMC), "the proposed [Transboundary Resource Assessment Committee (TRAC)] benchmark would depart from the conventional understanding of benchmarks."
The Center is using the term "diagnostic benchmark" to describe the approach. According to Dr. Karp's letter, the term "diagnostic" is used to highlight the need to focus on the underlying data and lack of model fit, and "benchmark" is used to express the thoroughness and rigor of the review.
Dr. Karp expressed confidence that the proposal "addresses many of the concerns expressed by the Council regarding the Georges Bank yellowtail flounder."
For some time, the assessments have demonstrated severe problems known as a "retrospective pattern." In addition to the NEFMC, industry groups, members of Congress, state and local elected officials and non-government scientists have expressed grave concerns about the accuracy of existing assessments.
According to the letter the approach "is somewhat unconventional with respect to the basis for catch advice and certainly unconventional with respect to normal process for TRAC." But Dr. Karp states that it will provide "sufficient scientific basis for crafting catch advice that meets regulatory requirements to end overfishing."
Paul Rago of the Science Center will attend the New England Fishery Management Council meeting on January 29 to present an overview of the approach and answer any questions.
A meeting will be held with fishermen before the April benchmark to discuss the various data sources to be used in the empirical approach.
The problem with the existing assessments is described in the Science Center's proposal as follows:
"The stock assessment for Georges Bank yellowtail flounder suffers from a severe retrospective pattern. Likely causes of the retrospective pattern include misreporting of landings, underestimation of discards, or increases in natural mortality. Unfortunately neither the model nor ancillary evidence is sufficient to distinguish among these competing hypotheses. In the absence of unequivocal evidence, there is no expectation that an update of the current assessment approach will alleviate any of the concerns raised about this assessment. Independent reviews and tests of alternative models by stock assessment scientists at the recent ICES World Conference on Stock Assessment Methods failed to find acceptable alternatives. All of the models suggested that a change in the underlying data or assumed magnitude of natural mortality had occurred, although none of the models could identify a proximate cause. Given the continuing need for stock assessment advice and the likely futility of identifying the perfect model, we propose a new approach that relies heavily on contemporary information. In pursuing this new path, it must be recognized that some of the desirable features of stock assessment models, such as biomass reference points, rebuilding strategies, and forecasting, will be given up. Instead, the approach will focus on a more narrowly defined question of 'What is the appropriate level of harvest in the upcoming fishing year?'"
View the letter to NEFMC Executive Director Tom Nies from NOAA Science and Research Director Dr. Bill Karp
Read the final proposal for the yellowtail flounder assessment