A diverse group of industry stakeholders and marine scientists are raising questions about the reliability of the TRAC's advice and the underlying science behind it.
WASHINGTON (Saving Seafood) August 20, 2013 — As the Transboundary Resources Assessment Committee (TRAC) publicizes its recommendations for drastically reduced catch limits for Georges Bank yellowtail flounder, a diverse group of industry stakeholders and marine scientists are raising questions about the reliability of the TRAC's advice and the underlying science behind it. This includes one of the largest industry associations, the Fisheries Survival Fund, and the current President of the American Institute of Fishery Research Biologists (AIFRB), Dr. Steve Cadrin.
Writing to NOAA Northeast Fisheries Science Center (NEFSC) Director Dr. Bill Karp, FSF asks the agency to abandon their yellowtail catch recommendations based on the TRAC's 2013 assessment. The Survival Fund regards that assessment as critically flawed and "not viable for use as a basis for catch advice." Instead, they urge Dr. Karp to "provide catch advice using alternative catch advice strategies that rely on survey and catch indices" which they argue is more reliable. They also ask NOAA to initiate new research programs to study Georges Bank yellowtail flounder as part of an effort to "create a defensible process that leads to a result that all stake holders can believe in."
Most significant of FSF's criticisms is the persistence of a "retrospective pattern," in the assessment. This is a statistical bias that occurs when stock assessment models consistently incorrectly estimate figures such as population and fishing mortality. Retrospective patterns were present in the 2011, 2012, and 2013 TRAC assessments. FSF believes that accepting the assessment violates both the Magnuson-Stevens Act as well as National Marine Fisheries Service guidelines, which state that the presence of a retrospective pattern is "grounds to reject the assessment model as an indication of stock status or the basis for management advice."
Dr. Steve Cadrin, President of the AIFRB and a professor in the Department of Fisheries and Oceanography in the School for Marine Science and Technology at the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth, voiced similar criticisms of the 2013 TRAC assessment. At an August 12 forum on the assessment hosted by NOAA, Dr. Cadrin examined issues such as the retrospective pattern, population models that are incompatible with the assessment data, and inconsistent estimates of yellowtail stock size. He recommended that a new benchmark assessment be conducted as soon as possible, with catch advice limited to bycatch until a new assessment is complete. According to Dr. Cadrin, "there is insufficient basis for more restrictive recommendations in the 2013 TRAC assessment." This advice was echoed in a letter to Dr. Jake Kritzer, Chairman of the New England Fishery Management Council's (NEFMC) Scientific and Statistical Committee, in which Dr. Cadrin declared, "I cannot accept the 2013 TRAC assessment of Georges Bank yellowtail flounder as a reliable basis for management decisions."
Read the press release on FSF's letter to NEFSC Director Dr. Bill Karp
Read the FSF letter to NEFSC Director Dr. Bill Karp
Read Dr. Steve Cadrin's letter to the NEFMC's Scientific and Statistical Committee
View Dr. Cadrin's presentation on the Georges Bank Yellowtail Flounder Assessment
Read the New Bedford Standard-Times story by Steve Urbon on NOAA's August 12 forum