October 7, 2022 — The following was released by NOAA Fisheries:
NOAA scientists have created a number of cutting-edge tools to help seafood decision-makers adapt to climate change. These tools can inform managers, municipalities, and seafood businesses as they make decisions in the coming years. Across the country, regional fisheries councils and coastal communities are leading the way.
Adapting Our Management
Observations, forecasts, and predictive models can help explain what is happening to our seafood species now and what might happen in the future. But they do not tell us what to do about it. Instead, those actions must be decided by managers representing the community of seafood stakeholders.
Exploring the Future of Fisheries through Scenario Planning
In recent years, regional U.S. fishery management councils have oriented their decision-making toward climate adaptation. To do so in an inclusive way, several councils have turned to scenario planning, a tool for thinking through possible courses of action for an uncertain future. Scenario planning exercises guide participants to imagine a suite of possibilities for future conditions. They examine not just the most likely outcomes, but also futures disrupted by unexpected or anomalous events, such as the “Blob” heat wave. Together, participants distill these possibilities into a portfolio of scenarios. Talking through these shared stories about the future can help managers and stakeholders identify robust adaptation actions that make sense for multiple scenarios.
Prompted by the shifts of many key seafood species across management boundaries, the three councils along the East Coast, along with the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission, teamed up to launch a joint East Coast Climate Change Scenario Planning project. On the West Coast, the Pacific Fishery Management Council partnered with the Nature Conservancy to use scenario planning to explore changing fish stock availability and productivity in the California Current ecosystem. Both initiatives involve multiple stages of consulting with stakeholders, reviewing the latest science, drafting and workshopping scenarios, and assessing their implications. These efforts help the regions develop shared narratives as they consider possible responses to the challenges that lie ahead.