July 4, 2014 — Considering the analysis performed last Tuesday at the Port Moller Test Fishery (PMTF), it has been determined that despite the fall in sockeye resource catches there appears to still be a significant number of specimens moving through the test fishery area headed to Bristol Bay.
Whereas Bristol Bay Science and Research Institute (BBSRI) has forecast there will be 38 million sockeye specimens, Alaska Department of Fish & Game's preseason prediction is a bit lower—amounting to 26.5 million, reported KDLG.
The cumulative index number has been analysed to be 1,210, which is well shy of the average index number of 1,743 for 1 July and only twice in the last 24-years has the cumulative number been lower than this year’s, in 2007 and 1998.
Given these data, Fisheries Scientist Scott Raborn with the BBSRI noted that while catches should continue to fade there appears to be a sizable tail left. The scientist notes that currently it looks like the run through the Test Fishery area will be about 2-days early, which should translate into about the same run timing inshore.
The BBSRI model shows the run to the Egegik District coming in 55-per cent above the pre-season forecast and the run to the Naknek-Kvichak District coming in about 72-per cent above forecast. The run to the Nushagak District is anticipated to come in 27-per cent above the forecast.