SEAFOODNEWS.COM by John Sackton — June 30, 2014 — Fish are pouring into Bristol Bay, with three days – Thursday through Saturday – all seeing landings of over 2 million fish.
On Friday, the total run was over 3 million fish, with more than 2.6 million fish harvested and 920,000 fish going to escapement.
As of Saturday, the total run exceeded 12 million fish.
The amount of fish coming in Friday was the most in a single day since 2008, and the earliest large day since 1970. This amount of harvest has only been achieved 14 times since 1970.
The strong run has lead both the University of Washington and the Bristol Bay Science & Research Institute which is affiliated with the Bristol Bay Regional Seafood Development Association to raise their forecasts for the total run.
The ADF&G preseason forecast of 26.5 million fish has been raised by BBSRI to 30.9 million fish, while the University of Washington Fisheries Research Institute has raised their own model slightly, after lowering it in their first in season update. The UW model predicted a run of 29.425 million, and they are now predicting a run of 29.435 million. This is mostly significant because their first in season analysis last week pegged the run at 28.3 million fish.
Most observers say that now either the run is early, or it will be greater than forecast. According to scientists at Port Moller test fishery, Saturday indicated there was still strength in the run. The BBSRI model uses a comparison between fish see at Port Moller and harvest levels when those fish reach Bristol Bay, and they create an index that interprets Port Moller data based on the current year’s harvesting. It is this index that has led them to revise their estimates upwards.
There is increased capacity in Bristol Bay this year, and the large runs will help utilize the new capacity.
No processors have posted prices to harvesters, but some harvesters are seeking $2.00 a lb., which would be a $. 50 cent increase over last year.
However, the Fraser river run is a source of huge uncertainty hanging over the market. The DFO is predicting a run of 23 million fish, but its estimates are anywhere from 7.3 million to 72.5 million. If the Fraser run were to come in significantly above forecasts, the market could be oversupplied with sockeye and may have to adjust.
This story originally appeared on Seafood.com, a subscription site. It is reprinted with permission.