October 31, 2024 — Farmers can estimate the size of a harvest months in advance by counting the blossoms on their trees. Similarly, salmon fishers can cast an eye into the future by counting spawning fish in a river. Fishery managers are doing that now in the Sacramento River and its tributaries, and what they’re seeing could be a bad sign for next year.
The low count of returning adult salmon, made by the federally operated Coleman National Fish Hatchery, is preliminary, with several weeks left in the natural spawning period for the Sacramento Valley’s fall-run Chinook, backbone of the state’s salmon fishing economy.
There is even some possible good news in the numbers — a large percentage of immature Chinook, called “jacks.” This demographic slice of the salmon population can be a predictive indicator of ocean abundance for the coming season, and it could be a sign there are more fish in the ocean than many expected — though officials say it’s too early to tell.
Overall, the unwelcome numbers, mirroring similar figures from last year, are alarming to people who fish, for they portend the possible continuation of the two-year-and-counting statewide ban on salmon fishing, imposed in 2023 following a weak spawning season.